Severe Threat Easter Sunday

FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S....
 
  ...SOUTH CENTRAL U.S...
 
  POWERFUL SRN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES
  INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON EASTER SUNDAY AS STRONGEST
  FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE SERN-ERN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONE...H5
  FLOW OF 80-90KT....FROM EAST TX INTO NWRN MS.
  ADDITIONALLY...STRONGLY DIFFLUENT HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD
  THE SCNTRL U.S. IN CONJUNCTION WITH RAPIDLY MODIFYING BOUNDARY
  LAYER.
 
  MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT STRONG WARM ADVECTION...ALONG
  WITH ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER VORT...WILL ENCOURAGE A BROAD ZONE OF
  WIDESPREAD STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS EARLY IN THE
  PERIOD...MUCH OF IT ELEVATED IN NATURE.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL
  PROPAGATE/DEVELOP EWD ACROSS TX/OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND
  EVENTUALLY THE CNTRL GULF COAST REGION BY 12Z MONDAY AS LARGE SCALE
  ASCENT SPREADS DOWNSTREAM.
 
  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...SHEAR PROFILES WILL
  BE VERY STRONG ACROSS THE OUTLOOK REGION...CLEARLY SUPPORTIVE OF
  ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WHERE INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT.  ALTHOUGH
  BUOYANCY WILL BE AT A MINIMUM EARLY IN THE PERIOD...SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF
  CNTRL TX...NWD TO THE RED RIVER.  WITH TIME A NARROW AXIS OF
  INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
  WARM FRONT THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE BEYOND THE RED RIVER/ARKLATEX
  DUE TO EXTENSIVE CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION.  MODELS INSIST PRIMARY
  SFC LOW WILL LAG SOMEWHAT OVER NCNTRL TX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
  HOURS.  THIS MAY ALLOW SOMEWHAT HIGHER INSTABILITY TO BE GENERATED
  AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN TX IN THE WAKE OF WARM FRONTAL
  PRECIPITATION.  IF MARITIME AIRMASS IS ABLE TO WARM SUFFICIENTLY
  THEN A POTENTIALLY MORE VOLATILE SCENARIO MAY EVOLVE OVER ERN TX
  INTO LA AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS STRONGLY SUPPORT SUPERCELL
  DEVELOPMENT.  AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK DUE TO THE
  UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK
  MAY BE REQUIRED FOR TORNADOES IN LATER OUTLOOKS.