Friday, April 10, 2009

Severe Threat Easter Sunday


FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S....

...SOUTH CENTRAL U.S...

POWERFUL SRN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES
INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON EASTER SUNDAY AS STRONGEST
FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO THE SERN-ERN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONE...H5
FLOW OF 80-90KT....FROM EAST TX INTO NWRN MS.
ADDITIONALLY...STRONGLY DIFFLUENT HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD
THE SCNTRL U.S. IN CONJUNCTION WITH RAPIDLY MODIFYING BOUNDARY
LAYER.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT STRONG WARM ADVECTION...ALONG
WITH ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER VORT...WILL ENCOURAGE A BROAD ZONE OF
WIDESPREAD STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...MUCH OF IT ELEVATED IN NATURE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PROPAGATE/DEVELOP EWD ACROSS TX/OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND
EVENTUALLY THE CNTRL GULF COAST REGION BY 12Z MONDAY AS LARGE SCALE
ASCENT SPREADS DOWNSTREAM.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...SHEAR PROFILES WILL
BE VERY STRONG ACROSS THE OUTLOOK REGION...CLEARLY SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WHERE INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT. ALTHOUGH
BUOYANCY WILL BE AT A MINIMUM EARLY IN THE PERIOD...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF
CNTRL TX...NWD TO THE RED RIVER. WITH TIME A NARROW AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
WARM FRONT THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE BEYOND THE RED RIVER/ARKLATEX
DUE TO EXTENSIVE CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION. MODELS INSIST PRIMARY
SFC LOW WILL LAG SOMEWHAT OVER NCNTRL TX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS MAY ALLOW SOMEWHAT HIGHER INSTABILITY TO BE GENERATED
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN TX IN THE WAKE OF WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION. IF MARITIME AIRMASS IS ABLE TO WARM SUFFICIENTLY
THEN A POTENTIALLY MORE VOLATILE SCENARIO MAY EVOLVE OVER ERN TX
INTO LA AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS STRONGLY SUPPORT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR TORNADOES IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Severe Weather Possible Easter Sunday

Paste the following link in your browser to read more about the possibility of strong to severe storms on Easter Sunday in south Louisiana.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

2009 Revised Hurricane Forecast

Hurricane forecasters at Colorado
State University have scaled back their prediction for the Atlantic
and are now calling for an average season with 12 named storms,
including six hurricanes, two of them major.
In December, researchers William Gray and Phil Klotzbach
predicted an above-average season with 14 named storms with seven
hurricanes - three major.
Gray said Tuesday the forecast was dialed down because of
improved chances of El Nino conditions, which suppress hurricane
formation.
This is Gray's 26th year of forecasting hurricanes. His
predictions are watched closely by emergency responders and others,
but many say long-range forecasts have little practical value
beyond focusing public attention on the dangers.
The season runs June 1-Nov. 30.

Monday, April 6, 2009

Possible Record Breaking Night

Today, you are probably checking your calender to make sure that it is still spring. We are going to look at unseasonably cool temperatures for the next two days. Our average high for early spring should be near 73° and overnight lows near 53°. However, our high today will be in the lower 60s with overnight lows in the lower to mid 30s. The expected overnight low for Baton Rouge tonight is 35°. If the wind relaxes this evening, we could definitely break the old record of 36° set way back in 1996. Temperatures will be back to normal by Wednesday, but we definitely need to bundle up for the next few days. Make sure you cover those newly planted spring plants to prevent damage.